Daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in NCR decreasing steadily — OCTA Group

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THE OCTA Research group said on Saturday that they are seeing a “steady decrease” in the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) based on a seven-day moving average of new cases.

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the NCR is now down to 3 percent from the previous day’s 5 percent.

Dr. David said in a tweet that “NCR daily growth rate steadily declining, now at just 3%. If this trend is real, we could expect 16 to 18k cases in the NCR today, and 15 to 16k tomorrow.”

“Once the daily growth rate becomes negative, new cases in the NCR are decreasing,” Dr. David added.

The group also said the virus’ reproduction number likewise slid to 3.22 on January 11.

While the decrease in growth rate is strong evidence that the trend in the NCR appears to be peaking, it is still subject to data backlog and late reports,” Dr. David remarked.

He also said they noticed a slowing down of COVID-19 cases in provinces such as Cavite, Rizal, and Bulacan.

However, the surge may still be in its early stages but would likely accelerate soon in Cebu, Pangasinan, Quezon, Iloilo, Camarines Sur, Davao del Sur, and Negros Occidental.

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