INDEPENDENT research group OCTA Research projects that an even bigger surge of COVID-19 cases, particularly in the National Capital Region (NCR), may happen soon
OCTA Research Group’s senior fellow Dr. Guido David said that given the high reproduction number, it is highly likely that the Omicron variant may be the culprit in the increase.
David noted that the reproduction number in the region is now at 4.05 compared the surge of the Delta variant where the reproduction number in Metro Manila did not exceed 2.
However, he reported that they are also seeing increase in cases in areas just outside the NCR’s perimeter such as Cavite, Rizal, Laguna and Bulacan.
The OCTA senior fellow sees the surge can still be contained considering the decision of the national government and the country’s COVID-19 response team to bring back NCR to Alert Level 3.
And although there is a rapid increase, it is also possible that the rate will decline as fast as it increased, noting the South Africa experience with Omicron,
“However, we cannot guarantee that because of the different experiences of each country — varied vaccination rates and vaccination coverage,” David explained.