THE October inflation figure remains at the lower end of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target range of 2-4%, according to Albay 2nd District Representative Joey Salceda, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.
Salceda noted that the year-to-date average stands at 3.3%, comfortably within the BSP’s target range for the year.
“I am confident that the final inflation figure will fall within this range, allowing the BSP some flexibility for potential interest rate cuts,” salceda stated.
He added that the expected increase in OFW remittances in December should support the currency and potentially ease inflation further.
Rice Prices: Impact of Tariff Reductions
The lawmaker highlighted a positive trend in rice prices, explaining that while year-over-year rice price inflation remains a concern, month-on-month prices of major cereals—including rice, corn, and wheat—have declined.
He attributed these improvements partly to President Marcos’s decision to reduce rice tariffs by over 50%, which Salceda believes has benefited consumers without adversely affecting farmers.
Salceda pointed out that farmgate prices have risen significantly, from an average of P18.72 to P24.70 per kilogram this year—a 32% increase—compared to a 27.17% increase in well-milled rice prices.
He suggested that the differential is largely due to tariff reductions that have helped keep rice prices manageable while providing gains for local farmers.
The recent lifting of India’s rice export ban is also expected to ease potential price increases from December’s seasonal demand and recent typhoon disruptions.
Positive Trends in Meat Prices
Salceda also reported promising developments in meat prices. Year-over-year inflation for meat has slowed to 3.6%, and month-on-month prices are declining. In particular, poultry prices have dropped by as much as P27 per kilogram compared to last month. “I expect this downward trend to continue until mid-December, after which prices may rise due to seasonal demand,” he said.
Fish prices have remained stable, with a slight year-over-year inflation decrease of 0.4%. However, rising corn prices may limit further declines in meat prices.
Overall Economic Outlook
The former Albay governor noted that the October inflation report shows no significant red flags. “In many ways, this represents a return to more ‘normal’ inflation figures, suggesting that both global trade and local markets have adapted to recent economic shocks,” he said.
Salceda underscored that rice and corn remain critical in shaping inflation. While recent tariff adjustments have shown immediate benefits, further price stability will require addressing structural challenges such as yield improvement, input costs, logistics, and post-harvest losses.