IF the metrics that the OCTA Research Group is looking at is to be considered, a fellow of the group said that the National Capital Region (NCR) may go to Alert Level 1 starting March 1, 2022.
During the Laging Handa public briefing, Dr. Guido David said the primary consideration would be the positivity rate that the region recorded, which was at 4.9 percent, which is lower than the 5-percent threshold prescribed by the World Health Organization (WHO).
The 4.9 positivity rate is the lowest recorded in the region since December of last year.
With regard to the positivity rate in the NCR’s neighboring areas, Batangas and Laguna are both at 6 percent, Cavite is at 9 percent, Rizal is at 7 percent to remain at low risk, while Quezon was at 3 percent to improve to very low risk.
David said among the metrics they are looking at is the healthcare utilization rate, now at only 25 percent, including ICU utilization rate which is also low.
David added that the growth rate slowed down in certain areas such as Pateros, which registered only one case a day for the past week, while San Juan City had 5 cases per day, while cases in other areas continue to go down.
The Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) in Metro Manila, he said, is now at only 2.85 for every 100,000 cases, which means only two people get sick of COVID-19 per day.
“NCR remained at low risk (for Covid-19) as of February 21, 2022 as the average daily attack rate decreased to 2.85 percent, while the reproduction number was stable at 0.21, very low, and the healthcare utilization rate remained at 25 percent, very low,” David said.
According to David, they expect that this will go down further to only two, and possibly one by March 1.
With regard to healthcare utilization, there are other cities in the NCR where it is not yet that low, but he said the local government unit is not to blame on this issue. It still depends on the choice or preferred hospital by the public where they want to be admitted.