Ibinabala ng mga eksperto mula sa OCTA research team ang posibilidad na magkaroon ng surge o pagdami ng mga kaso ng coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sa Disyembre kung luluwagan ang community quarantine lalo na sa Metro Manila.
Sa pinakahuling ulat ng OCTA team, ang premature na pag-downgrade ng quarantine status sa National Capital Reigon ay makapagpapataas ng panganib o risk na magkaroon gn surge ng COVID-19 infections sa Disyembre.
“The national government must sustain the GCQ status in the NCR coupled with further improvements in its testing, tracing and isolation programs not just to sustain the gains of the last MECQ but to also prevent a surge, especially around Christmas time,” ayon sa ulat.
“We caution the national government against prematurely downgrading the quarantine status in the identified high-risk areas and most especially the NCR as this may lead to exponential growth in the number of cases and deaths apart from overwhelming our health care system,” dagdag pa ng report ng OCTA experts.
Ayon sa grupo, bagamat bumababa na ang mga napapaulat na positibong kaso ng COVID-19 na mula 4,300 nuong Agosto ay naging 2,988 ngayong buwan at nababawasan na rin ang transmission rate at positivity rate, may posibilidad pa rin na magbago ito kung magluluwag sa quarantine.
“While the situation in the NCR has improved as the rate of transmission, the number of cases, as ell as the positivity rate and the measure for hospital resource utilization are all on a downward trend, it has not yet achieved the crucial 28 days case doubling time requirement set by IATF to be classified into an MGCQ status,” diin pa ng mga eksperto.
Kasabay nito, inirerekomenda ng OCTA research team na mapanatili ang GCQ status sa NCR hangga’t hindi naaabot ang kuwalipikasyon o requirements ng Inter-agency Task Force para maibaba sa modified GCQ.
“Therefore, we recommend sustaining the current General Community Quarantine (GCQ) status for the NCR until it further improves its health indicators and qualifies for the MGCQ status,” the team said.
Tinataya rin ng UP OCTA research team na tataas pa ng 380,000 hanggang 410,000 ang kaso ng COVID-19 sa Oktubre 31.
“The current trajectory (as of September 25) shows between 310,000 and315,000 cases by September 30. It is likely we will reach the lower range of the previous projections, a very positive sign that we are headed in the right direction,” ayon pa sa grupo.